With its barometer, VP Bank is looking to boost an understanding of investment trends, both historically as well as in the near future. The economic cycle has not lasted so long in Europe as is the case in the USA. However, signals are already appearing in Europe that suggest that the economy is beginning to falter. Incoming orders for example in Germany, the Eurozone’s biggest economy, have declined markedly.
These are bad omens for the future outlook of the economy. The VP Bank recession barometer shows how the current phase compares with similar phases in the past. It means the likelihood of a recession in the Eurozone has risen of late to 28 percent. Which is the highest it has been since the euro crisis of 2011/2012. It is only when the barometer shows a probability of well over 50 percent, however, that the situation becomes a threat.
The parameters of the monthly barometer are also of relevance for the Swiss economy. Over 40 percent of Swiss exports are delivered into the Eurozone. And in the past Switzerland has never really been able to escape the impact of recessions in the Eurozone.
Read here for further details about the VP Bank recession barometer.