Our View

With optimism into the new year

Dr. Felix Brill · Dr. Thomas Gitzel · Bernhard Allgäuer · Harald Brandl · Jérome Mäser
Reading time: 11 Min
The Omicron variant of the coronavirus has caused interim commotion on stock markets. An important reminder to pay attention to diversification in the portfolio even in good times. Despite short-term economic risks, we are generally optimistic for the new year.

So it does still exist: volatility in the stock markets. In recent months, one could get the impression that new risks and bad news were simply rolling off the prices. Inflation? A temporary problem. Supply bottlenecks? Passing. Change of course in monetary policy? Has been signalled well by  the US Federal Reserve.

At any rate, it did nothing to dampen risk appetite. The price development speaks volumes. The US benchmark index S&P 500, for example, gained 25% between January and mid-November, i.e. before the slight setback, and the European Euro Stoxx 50 was not much behind with 23%. With the new Corona variant Omicron, this changed, at least in the short term. There were several daily losses, some of which exceeded 2%; volatility increased and several sentiment indicators reversed towards risk-off.

From our point of view, this is a good opportunity to increase the equity quota in the portfolio. Our economic outlook for 2022 is positive, despite short-term risks arising from corona-related constraints and the ongoing supply bottlenecks.

Against this backdrop, the earnings outlook for companies remains encouraging, which should provide the necessary underpinning for equity markets. In a regional comparison, we consider Europe to be the most attractive market.

On the other hand, we are closing the overweight position in gold. Gold remains an important strategic element to diversify the portfolio. However, there are currently no arguments for maintaining the tactical overweight.

Tactical Positioning